NEWS

NEWS

Auto Industry Could Be Key To Japan And German Manufacturing Recovery

Release time:

2024-05-20


11

 

Manufacturing in the two largest advanced economies in Asia and Europe is taking a hit, according to separate data from Japan and Germany on Feb. 21. Some argue that the importance of the auto industry in the recovery phase cannot be ignored.

Japan's factory production and manufacturing activity contracted in February due to a drop in domestic and foreign orders, the Japan Times reported, with the Markit/Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising from 50.3 in January, a private survey showed on Thursday. It fell to 48.5 in February, falling below 50 for the first time since August 2016.

The survey also showed that business confidence had deteriorated for the first time in more than six years, suggesting that global trade frictions are taking a growing toll on Asia's export-reliant economies and global manufacturing.

Japan's economy rebounded in the fourth quarter of last year as business and consumer spending recovered from natural disasters in the third quarter, but trade frictions and a planned sales tax hike will also dampen growth this year.

On the same day, German data showed that the initial value of the manufacturing PMI fell from 49.7 in January to 47.6 in February, a 74-month low and below 50 for the second consecutive month.

In addition, German manufacturing has been hit by the European Union's new emissions standard WLTP, and many German car companies temporarily suspended production in the third quarter of last year, resulting in a decline in auto industry production, which dragged down the economy. GDP in Europe grew by 1.4% in 2018, a sharp slowdown from 2.2% growth in 2017.

Bloomberg reports that the pain of the trade slump is being felt around the world, except for Japan and Germany.

Shipping giant Maersk said on Thursday that profits would be lower than expected, and Chief Executive Soren Skou said the outlook for the year was even bleaker. UBS also lowered its forecast for global growth to the lowest level in a decade.

ING chief economist Carsten Brzeski told Bloomberg Television: "Uncertainty is the buzzword for central banks...maybe, if all these external risks are benign, we might see another move by the Fed and another by the European Central Bank. Another attempt at normalization. But today, the odds of a benign outlook for all of these risks are low.

ZeroHedge said that a key factor in the recovery of global manufacturing could be the recovery of the global auto industry, where factors such as emissions standards and trade agreements weighing on the industry appear to be temporary, while industrial transformation is more structural, and a combination of the two The balance will be clarified this year.


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Manufacturing in the two largest advanced economies in Asia and Europe is taking a hit, according to separate data from Japan and Germany on Feb. 21. Some argue that the importance of the auto industry in the recovery phase cannot be ignored.